“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future”

Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

Understanding customer needs, translating these into products and generating accurate forecasts of market demand are real challenges that keep legions of market researchers, marketing experts and consultants busy. This is especially true in very innovative businesses where there is limited or no historical data available and no experience to relate to. On the supply side, uncertainties can also be large, especially the availability of new technologies, their costs evolution and their respective benefits. However, the challenges on the supply side are not as great as on the demand side, and reasonably accurate forecasts can be derived following careful analysis.

We start by reviewing the issue of forecasting from a holistic perspective and discuss the alternative methods that are used by practitioners. In the next chapters we will show how numerical forecasts for supply and demand can be generated for your business plan.

Download Forecasting Revenues and Costs, a 70-page book-within-a-book covering the following chapters:

  • Chapter 7: Forecasting is an Art
    • We Are Still in the Stone Age
    • Two Types of Uncertainty
    • Using Rules of Thumb
    • Modelling
    • End-User Surveys
    • Pilot Project
    • Commercial Launch
  • Chapter 8: Forecasting on the Supply Side
    • Forecasting Technology Capacity Evolution
    • Forecasting Technology Costs (CAPEX)
    • Forecasting Operating Costs (OPEX)
  • Chapter 9: Forecasting Demand
    • The Diffusion of Innovations in Markets
    • Main Parameters Characterising an S-curve
    • Review of Various S-curve Models
    • Forecasts Must Have Predictive Power
    • More Complex Models
    • Monte Carlo Simulation
    • Lessons Learned from Demand Forecasting



This content is for Discovery, Business Plan Starter and Business Plan Advanced members only.
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